If they below this trend there will be plenty of scope for a rapid catch-up if above it they are likely

If they below this trend, there will be plenty of scope for a rapid catch-up, if above it they are likely to rise more slowly than incomes.Not surprisingly, there is room for differences of opinion about this.David Miles, Professor of Economics at Imperial College, said: "Unless you think house prices are still dramatically undervalued, house-price inflation will slow down this year."He said the rise last year had probably brought prices back up to their trend, and that with a 1 percentage-point rise in interest rates the rate of house-price inflation could be 5 per cent or less this year.James Barty, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank, argued that there was still scope for a catch-up "Our view is that housing is historically still cheap. Bank of England figures showed mortgage lending reached a record monthly level of £3.75bn in December.All these indicators definitely point to a further above-inflation increase in house prices in 2000. So rising real incomes and the absence of concern about job security will underpin the housing market.Indicators like the number of loans approved and the number of transactions are on an upward trend. How big that increase will be depends on how far the current level of prices is from the long-run trend, set by long-term average income growth and the supply of housing. Growth will be faster than in 1999, unemployment will continue to decline, and earnings are predicted to rise by significantly more than inflation. For example, 100 per cent mortgages are once again available, and loan-to-income ratios have crept up. "There has been some relaxation at the edges, but lessons have been learnt from the late 1980s."But some economists think the housing market is starting to ring alarm bells even if past excesses are not likely to be repeated The economic background is certainly buoyant.

Its group economist, Martin Ellis, said: "This is based on the expectation that interest rates will rise, probably to 6.5 per cent."A one-point rise in loan costs, fully passed on to borrowers, would add just over £30 to the monthly cost of a standard variable repayment mortgage of £50,000 with the bank.Mr Ellis said there was no danger of a repetition of the late 1980s boom, even though some lenders have started to relax their lending criteria. As Halifax pointed out, this annual rate will certainly accelerate during the next few months because fears of an economic downturn reduced house prices in the early part of last year.It predicts house price inflation for 2000 as a whole will slow down nevertheless to 8 per cent. Its price index has also lately been extremely volatile from month to month. This has offered some comfort to experts unwilling to admit to signs of a housing boom, even though an official quarterly house price index has been showing growth rates much closer to the higher Nationwide figures.However, house-price inflation as measured each month by the two main lenders has now converged, and at an alarmingly high figure.

Both Halifax and Nationwide reported a big rise in prices in December - 2.6 per cent in the former case, 1.0 per cent in the latter. However, the Halifax index declined slightly in November, whereas the Nationwide's jumped by 1.6 per cent.For much of the period since 1997, Halifax has been reporting a far lower annual rate of increase than its competitor. While both lenders insist there is no unsustainable boom, late-1980s style, they are forecasting a further significant rise in prices this year, even on the assumption that interest rates do go up.Interpreting the state of the market is made trickier by the fact that the two main price indices can differ sharply from month to month. If it does, the housing market will be the main culprit. House-price inflation had climbed sharply to 13-14 per cent by the end of last year, according to recent figures from both Halifax and Nationwide. The monetary Policy Committee meets this week amid expectations that it will vote for at least a quarter-point rise in interest rates and perhaps more. The monetary Policy Committee meets this week amid expectations that it will vote for at least a quarter-point rise in interest rates and perhaps more If it does, the housing market will be the main culprit. These word-and-image "multimedia" adventures and random-access approaches often seem quite at home on the Web.Historical texts and recordings include key works from Artaud to Zukofsky, and new to the modern section is David Daniel's immense 390-page Gates of Paradise sequence, dedicated to the "unbound human self".Plus useful criticism and exegesis, a choice of "found + insane poems", and our own veteran sound poet Bob Cobbing, live in Lewisham with his inimitable Real Audio vocalisations of a piece called Alphabet of Fishes.University of Bums on Seats http:// www.cynicalbastards /ubs/Uncompromising in its mission to extend access to higher education, this online college has a principled "character-over-qualifications" admissions policy, which ensures that no one will ever be rejected on any grounds except non-payment of fees.Course options include navel philosophy, post-feminist needlework, reflexive perspectives on postmodern verbosity, post-rational discourse and melon studies.Send interesting, quirky or, at a pinch, cool site recommendations to websites dircon.co.uk.