Northern Ireland voters tend to play their cards close to their chest

Northern Ireland voters tend to play their cards close to their chest.Similar demographic sums are being totted up in neighbouring Mid-Ulster, where Sinn Fein last year took 29.7 per cent of the vote compared to the SDLP's 28.5 per cent. There will be only one Unionist candidate in that seat, which last year registered a 35 per cent Unionist vote: the question is whether nationalist voters perceive that either the SDLP or Sinn Fein can beat the Unionist, and swing in that direction in sufficient numbers.The other possible Sinn Fein gain is in west Belfast, a traditionally bitterly hard-fought cockpit seat. To oust the SDLP incumbent Gerry Adams would first have to get out the Sinn Fein vote, and then have to hope that the small Unionist pocket of the constituency does not turn out to give the SDLP tactical votes aimed at keeping Sinn Fein out.Overall, Sinn Fein could lose votes yet gain seats. Winning seats would be hailed in many quarters as a republican resurgence, yet the fact is that in many constituencies the outcome will depend on localised factors. Someone once said that all politics is local; in Northern Ireland that is especially true.. The running of election campaigns used to be a job for amateurs. It was a haphazard operation, with a few key staff running the show with a host of volunteers and temporary workers No longer.

The three party headquarters dotted around Westminster are now highly professional and slick operations which are little different from each other There is a busy trade in pinching each others' ideas. Labour has led the way in moving from the traditional haphazard approach to a professionalism undreamt of a decade ago and this time has based its operation in its new Millbank centre, half a mile up the Thames from Parliament. There is a huge press conference auditorium downstairs, fitted mainly in grey rather than red, the better to suit the New Labour image and, of course, the cameras. Upstairs, there is a large open plan room which is the centrepiece of its operation, housing most of the key workers - staff from the party's base in Walworth Road plus myriad researchers and MPs' assistants. The staff are divided into task-forces such as attack, rebuttal, and key campaigners, each headed by a senior party figure.

The average age of the Labour campaigners is in the late twenties and according to one insider, "the big difference from previous campaigns is the presence of large numbers of very sexy young women".The atmosphere is busy and cautious. Everything put out is checked several times for any hidden spending commitments: "It's become second nature not to put in anything that will cost money."In overall charge is Peter Mandelson, the campaigns manager and veteran of the last two election campaigns.The day starts with an 8.45am meeting of the senior campaign figures, chaired by Gordon Brown. The schedule has been prepared long in advance, and is shown on a grid giving in detail each day's themes throughout the campaign, and the movements of all the key figures.In Smith Square, the Tories have revamped their headquarters since the last election, to create a much more media-friendly environment and to show a more hi-tech approach. The ground floor has become a media centre with a large press conference room. It is predominantly blue and sitting in it gives one the impression of having been consigned to a deep freeze.The biggest changes are on the second floor of Central Office.

Rather than having teams of party workers in small rooms, a huge open plan space has been created with up to 100 workers providing the backbone of the campaign. Alan Duncan MP, Parliamentary Private Secretary to Brian Mawhinney, the party chairman, is in charge of what he calls "the War Room".The 100 workers consist of Central Office staff, boosted by ministerial special advisers and volunteers, some of whom have taken a month off from their work in the City or with a PR firm. They are divided into four teams, dealing with research, broadcasting, rebuttal and press. As with all the parties, there is a group of young people with headphones monitoring every statement from opponents.Few of those involved are over 30, and many clearly see a spell at Central Office as a good career move, even if this time they are likely to end up on the losing side. Virtually all the campaign team is new, with the exception of the veteran Tony Garrett, the director of campaigns.Mr Duncan admits that the party "had some catching up to do" as Labour was widely regarded to have had the better campaign last time, even if it lost the battle. That has led to the creation of a dozen-strong "rebuttal" team, an American idea first borrowed by Labour.The Liberal Democrat headquarters in Cowley Street is not well suited to running an election campaign.