Some in Bosnia will prepare to take revenge but most will give thanks and consider how best to rebuild their lives

Some in Bosnia will prepare to take revenge but most will give thanks and consider how best to rebuild their lives.What if there is not?The 60-day cease-fire brokered by Mr Holbrooke in October will collapse, but we are unlikely to see much new fighting over the winter. The British and French would deploy fresh troops and order those in blue UN berets to switch. The Russians (perceived as friendly to Serbs) and Islamic nations (ditto to Sarajevo) would also send troops. All was quiet along the 600-mile confrontation line yesterday, and the number of ceasefire violations has decreased.What happens if there is a peace deal?Nato will swing into action within days, according to the US, which plans to send about 20,000 soldiers to Bosnia. First, how to share power among the two entities (the Muslim-Croat Federation and the Srpska Republic) and what kind of confederal links the entities should have with neighbouring states.How is the ceasefire holding?Very well, according to the UN. It also has an eye on large areas of western Bosnia, where the Bosnian Croats, with Zagreb's encouragement, are keen on union with Croatia.What are the main difficulties?Many and varied, but falling into two basic categories: constitutional and territorial.

Croatia is mostly interested in re-taking Eastern Slavonia, a slice of rich farmland still held by Serb rebels. The Bosnian government seeks a united Bosnia and an end to territorial encroachments by Belgrade and Zagreb, an end to the division of Sarajevo, a corridor to the government-held enclave of Gorazde, a ban on suspected war criminals standing in future elections, an end to the international arms embargo on Bosnia and control of the Serb-held town of Brcko. The Balkan participants are suggesting a shorter stay.What do the parties want?The Srpska Republic wants recognition of its statehood and the right to confederal links with Serbia, the division of Sarajevo, access to the Adriatic Sea, a widening of the corridor in northern Bosnia to include the Croat-held Orasje pocket and the return of some land recently captured by the government Serbia's main demand is the lifting of sanctions. He is joined by delegates from the other four Contact Group nations, Britain, France, Germany and Russia, and by Carl Bildt, the European Union's mediator.Why Ohio?Washington chose Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio, as a suitable location from which to exclude the press, but one which had comfortable accommodation for the three delegations The mediators say the talks could last for a month.

The Croatian contingent is led by President Franjo Tudjman who has said he will not stay long but will delegate decision-making powers to other Croat officials.The world is represented by Richard Holbrooke, the US Assistant Secretary of State who has cajoled the parties to the table. The defeat of Croatia's Serbs and recent government gains in Bosnia have altered the balance of power. The Bosnian Serbs risk losing all if they do not make a deal, but risk losing their statelet if they do.Who is attending the talks and who is not?These are to be "proximity" talks: three Balkan delegations in separate rooms, with negotiatiors scuttling about conducting corridor diplomacy.Bosnia is represented by President Alija Izetbegovic and other officials The Serb delegation, which represents also the Srpska Republic in Bosnia, is led by Serbia's President, Slobodan Milosevic, accompanied bymembers of the Bosnian Serb leadership but not the main civilian and military leaders, Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. But the broad brush-strokes are meaningless until the leaders paint in the details. The three parties - Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia - have agreed on the basic principles for a post-war settlement, with two entities (one Serb, one non-Serb) in Bosnia, free elections and respect for human rights. What it all means - questions and answers Is there any real hope of peace? More than ever before, but the mediators must reconcile the impossible: the government's demand for a united, sovereign Bosnia and the Serbs' desire for an independent statelet that might ultimately join Serbia.

This could see a Nato peace-keeping force, including 20,000 US troops, on the ground in Bosnia by the end of the year."This is the only way to do it," one Contact Group diplomat said as he arrived, arguing that no side had anything to gain from a resumption of fighting."I am an optimist, I believe these talks will succeed," President Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia said after he arrived.. But if an agreement can be reached, a formal treaty will be signed in Paris shortly afterwards.Although all parties have hardened their positions on the eve of the talks, diplomats believe a deal can be struck, perhaps within a month. Whether the three delegations will keep their promise not to talk to the press remains to be seen. In the event of important interim agreements, the press may be summoned back to Dayton Otherwise, US officials intend a virtual news blackout. About 200 diplomats and officials will be in permanent residence at the Visiting Officers' Quarters.When sufficient common ground has been achieved, the Croats, Bosnians and Serbs will meet face to face.

After the opening ceremony, the room is not likely to be used, at least in the early stages of discussions.Barring quick breakthroughs, the "proximity talks" will be moved forward by Mr Holbrooke and other officials of the Contact Group, shuttling between the three delegations to prod them towards agreement. Of the constitutional problems, he predicted that elections and the voting rights of refugees could be hardest to resolve.Formal meetings of the three delegations will be held in a meeting room at the base's Hope Hotel, at a table surrounded by simple beige chairs, with seating for lesser officials behind them. They range from the details of the envisaged 51-49 territorial split of Bosnia between the Croat-Muslim federation and the Bosnian Serbs, to constitutional question of how to create a unitary state with two "entities", which is not a fig-leaf for partition.According to Mr Holbrooke, "80 to 90 per cent" of the map has been settled, but not the most awkward areas, including Sarajevo and access to Gorazde. "They're talking peace but don't show the slightest readiness for compromise," Mr Holbrooke said, after greeting Bosnia's leader, Alija Izetbegovic, the last of the three leaders to arrive.Compromise, however, will be essential to resolve a host of disagreements, any one of which could wreck the negotiations. RUPERT CORNWELL Dayton, Ohio The Bosnian peace talks moved swiftly to business last night as the United States and its Contact Group partners presented the presidents of Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia with a comprehensive draft peace agreement designed to end theBalkan war.Immediately after the plenary opening session, chaired by Warren Christopher, the Secretary of State, the chief US negotiator, Richard Holbrooke, was due to table the plan, divided into10 sections, including a framework constitutional agreement, a draft division of territory and arrangements for the deployment of a Nato force should peace be achieved.The talks probably represented "the last, best, chance for peace", Mr Christopher said, as he flew into the huge, tightly guarded Wright-Patterson Air Force base, where the talks are being held: "I hope Dayton, Ohio, will be remembered as the place where the killing was finally brought to a halt."Despite outward optimism on all sides, the first signs were not promising. "If there is unity for a candidate other than [Ellemann-Jensen], the Danish candidate will not stand in the way," Mr Rasmussen said yesterday.Mr Lubbers already has the backing of Germany, France, Spain, Italy and several other small European Union states.The US was keeping silent about the selection process yesterday.However, given the Willy Claes fiasco, Washington might be well advised to investigate the recent political history of the candidates and ask gently about any recent purchases of helicopters..