The military despite some speculation is unlikely to intervene directly to prevent the Welfare coming to power

The military, despite some speculation, is unlikely to intervene directly to prevent the Welfare coming to power. That idea is only popular with the most fundamentalist secularists of the old republican school and diplomats from one or two continental European countries.Ordinary Turks know that Welfare Party is not single-mindedly radical on the Iranian or Arab model, even if Mr Erbakan has a dictatorial nature. Welfare controls the largest bloc of seats in parliament, having come first with 22 per cent of the vote in the December 1995 elections. Itconsolidated this lead in local by-elections on Sunday, climbing by three percentage points to reach 33.6 per cent in the 41 municipalities in question. Uncertainty arises over whether there will be a Welfare Party element in the next government, and what it might do. The confusion, which Mr Yilmaz said showed that Turkey was moving towards an "Italian-type democracy", as if that was something desirable, has also helped the wily and quietly ruthless President Demirel become a central player in Ankara.But eyes are mostly on the Welfare Party leader, Necmettin Erbakan, 70, who should be asked to try to form a government first. If the government is not formed by July 21, the President must call new elections.Turkish markets reacted mildly to the situation.

Private business has largely shrugged off political turmoil that dates back to September, even though there are some signs of economic slowdown and a hesitation by foreigners to invest. She first ordered ministers to boycott their own coalition government, and when that warning move failed, simply joined the Welfare Party in agreeing to a vote of no-confidence that was to be held on Saturday.Finding himself out-flanked, Mr Yilmaz found a pretext, a court annulment of the government's original vote of confidence which he had previously dismissed, to hand his resignation yesterday to President Suleyman Demirel.The Yilmaz administration will now remain in office in a caretaker capacity until a new government is set up, a process that could take up to 45 days. But he reckoned without Mrs Ciller's legendary toughness and charisma. But even after signing a coalition protocol for a rotating premiership, the two youthful leaders competing for the future captaincy of Turkey's sinking centre-right could not overcome a personal rivalry that borders on hatred. The slow-witted Mr Yilmaz was stubbornly convinced he could force Mrs Ciller's party to dump her by deploying allegations of corruption, including a parliamentary investigation into her great wealth.

Writing in today's New Statesman, Dr Howells said the way to get a "lost generation" of young people back to work was to "get serious about helping companies in Britain to become more competitive and innovative ... It is companies which succeed or fail in business, not countries".Dr Howells, MP for Pontypridd, yesterday denied his ideas would bring him into conflict with Margaret Beckett, Labour's trade and industry spokeswoman. "I think she understands as well as anybody that if British industry cannot compete, we ain't going to have any jobs," he said.. The Turkish government of Mesut Yilmaz collapsed yesterday after three months of paralysis, squabbling over corruption and abject failure in its principal goal of blocking the rise of the pro-Islamic Welfare Party. The centre-right minority coalition between the Motherland Party of Mr Yilmaz and Tansu Ciller's True Path Party was cobbled together in March under pressure from those who fear the Welfare Party most, a secular republican establishment that includes big business, media barons and the powerful military.