We'll wait to see what happens at the end of the year

We'll wait to see what happens at the end of the year."The surprise on the government finance front, along with confirmation from the Governor of the Bank of England on Monday that the strong pound meant he was now seeking only a quarter- rather than a half-point rise in interest rates, combined to knock four pfennigs off sterling's exchange rate yesterday. It closed at DM2.7085, while its index against a range of currencies fell 1.2 to 96.8.Analysts in the City predicted an improvement in the state of the public finances in the coming months. "The outlook is reasonably good with growth so strong," said Kevin Gardiner, an economist at Morgan Stanley.However, many remain concerned about the Government's financial position. John O'Sullivan at NatWest Markets said: "The recovery started five years ago and the deficit is still falling slowly.

Should we not be closer to balance at this stage?"Liberal Democrat spokesman Malcolm Bruce pressed home the same message. "The reality is that at the moment the public sector borrowing requirement [PSBR] is exceeded by the amount of interest we pay on the national debt," he said.In an interview on BBC radio, Mr Clarke made clear the Conservatives' hope that the Government's economic record will be a vote-winner."If there are people out there who think New Labour or the Liberal Democrats could do better than that, good luck to them. But I actually think when the time comes they will think very carefully about plunging out of where we are now into a risk of that kind," he said.High tax revenues explained the surprise pounds 5.8bn repayment in January. One element, a surge in VAT receipts, was expected after a lower-than- normal figure in December. The payment on account system is leading to a concentration on VAT payments into the first month of each quarter.Even so, growth in VAT revenues has been 15 per cent in the financial year to date, in contrast to the unaccountably low receipts the previous year.Corporation tax revenues, which are always strongest in October and January, were a little better than the Treasury had expected. They are up nearly 11 per cent year-on-year and have already overtaken the full-year forecast contained in November's Budget.Comment, page 19.

The mystery surrounding Nicholas Roditi, the publicity-shy investment manager with an estimated annual income of pounds 50m, deepened yesterday after his privately-owned firm, Rovida International, said it was considering a bid for Plantation & General Investments, a small quoted company. Rovida said that if an offer were made for Plantation & General, it would be in the region of 58p per share, valuing the company at slightly below pounds 20m. Plantation shares yesterday rose 9p to close at 61.5p. The potential bid, which Rovida said was conditional on the support of Plantation directors and "certain major shareholders", led to speculation yesterday that Mr Roditi may be looking for a suitable quoted vehicle to make his stock market debut.Plantation, registered in London, is a holding company with a range of interests, including tea estates in Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Malawi, together with coffee, sisal and rubber plantations.The company also owns several small agricultural hand tool companies making plantation hoes in Thailand and Brazil. Plantation made profits after tax of almost pounds 4.6m in 1995.Mr Roditi, who refuses all press interviews, was named last year by Financial World, a New York-based magazine, as being in the top 10 money makers among US finance houses.

He chooses to work from a small, nondescript office above branches of Gap and the Body Shop in Hampstead High Street, London.Mr Roditi manages a key part of the Quantum Quota fund on behalf of George Soros, the financier who shot to fame after making pounds 650m from Britain's ERM crisis in 1992. Last year Mr Roditi delivered a return of 160 per cent for investors. In cash terms the value of the fund shot up from pounds 350m to pounds 900m.. With the timing of a bad Vinnie Jones tackle, Birmingham City will today unveil plans for a pounds 25m stock market flotation in an effort to raise cash for manager Trevor Francis to buy players and stave off the threat of relegation from the Nationwide First Division. Details of the flotation come just days after the club's humiliating exit from the FA Cup at the hands of Wrexham of the Second Division.